This is Mel Velarde. Please help me with my equations. Let’s do this together. Correct me at any point; I’m in search of a rational course of action.
The report today March 21 is that there are 19 dead out of 307 Covid 19 positive.
(A) At 3% fatality rate which is high, 600 could be the right number of Covid positive patients, not 300. If 307 is the right number, then the picture is a lot better. However, the critical variable is the number of test kits.
How do we get the real numbers when we do not have enough test kits. Also, what do we consider enough number of test kits?
(B) assuming all the first batch of 2,000 test kits were used and relate them with the 19 or 20 fatality events, that gives us 1% fatality per universe of test kits.
Let’s look at the gold standard of practice: South Korea had 140,000 test kits, and was doing 10,000 tests a day (including via Drive Thru test centers); they have only 102 deaths out of 8,799 cases (1.1% fatality rate) and the least number of deaths per universe of test kits (8,799 cases out of 140,000 tested is 6.2%)
(Source: live updates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)
(C) Sec Ano today projected we may have 75,000 Covid 19 cases within 5 months. (Source: https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/03/16/2001268/philippines-could-have-75000-covid-19-cases-5-months/)
Now I am not just worried, I am
Extremely Worried!
Relate again all measures with South Korea, assuming we would be as good as them: using their 6.2% factor, the number 75,000 cases should be the result of a total of 1.2 million test kits.
How on earth do we Filipinos have 1.2 M test kits in time to prevent 2,100 deaths (at 3% of cases)?
If we perform like Italy, our death rate would be 8.5% which is 6,375 deaths. (Source: live updates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)
Either way, Korean model or Italian, we will have thousands dying numbering from 2,100 to 6,375!
How do we provide separate rooms to 75,000 Covid positive patients and have 75,000 complete medical treatment of medicines and other medical support, equipment and staff, etc.?
How about logistics, activation of corps of medical experts, supplies, and governance that generates social capital (that builds trust and compliance), and, which what this government is also good at, peace and order, etc.,etc.?
To beat the Korean experience is a lot harder; to be worse than Italy could be highly probable — if we don’t execute well.
(D) We suggest that government must put up a joint public and private sector task force. We must call immediately a National Taskforce composed of Government, Businessmen, Medical Experts, Scientists and Military officers, among many, whose expertise include medicine, logistics, geo tracking of virus infected carriers, satellite and mobile technology, nursing and caregiving, kit manufacturing, do it your own kits for universities, drug manufacturers, crowd control and transportation movers, etc etc.
This group’s first job is to create and codify protocols for every behavior – individual, groups, community, city, town, and island based – and provide the immediate response measure, transparent to all.
Second, a centralized communications site and active digital portal for info dissemination and mobilization. The real first weapon is information, data that is processed by experts and communicated down the line and bottoms up.
Third, rapid deployment of peace and order personnel who also bring hot meals to the community. Use the military and police for both hard and soft approach to community peace and order; make it peace, order, nutrition and welfare service.
Fourth, rapid production of the needed medicines such as Zithromax and Plaquenil, among others.
Fifth, activate and mobilize the Reserve Corps; there is nothing better than citizens providing support to fellow citizens.
Please provide the next steps. At the moment, I can only think of these points.
